How a 20% gold portfolio fared in the dot-com bust
20% gold tilt: 60% equities · 20% gold · 20% cash · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 2000-03-24 to 2007-05-30 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | +2.9% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | +24.4% |
| CAGR (real) | +0.4% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −33.5% |
| Recovery | 4.3 years |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 1.03× |
| Ulcer index | 16.2 |
| Worst calendar year | 2002: −10.0% |
| Physical costs paid | $296 |
| Liquidation value | $12,374 |
A $10,000 stake in a 20% gold portfolio (60% equities · 20% gold · 20% cash, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the dot-com bust would have ended the window worth $10,293 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of +2.9%. Along the way it fell at most 33.5% from its peak (4.3 years), with an ulcer index of 16.2. The same stake in equities alone returned −17.1% real. This allocation beat it by 20.1 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $296 over the window.
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The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates, not financial advice