How a 40% gold portfolio fared in the 1987 crash
40% gold tilt: 40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 1987-08-25 to 1989-07-26 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | −13.1% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | −5.3% |
| CAGR (real) | −7.1% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −15.6% |
| Recovery | not recovered in window |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 0.87× |
| Ulcer index | 12.1 |
| Worst calendar year | 1988: −0.7% |
| Physical costs paid | $323 |
| Liquidation value | $9,356 |
A $10,000 stake in a 40% gold portfolio (40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the 1987 crash would have ended the window worth $8,691 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of −13.1%. Along the way it fell at most 15.6% from its peak (not recovered in window), with an ulcer index of 12.1. The same stake in equities alone returned −7.8% real. This allocation trailed it by 5.2 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $323 over the window.
Open this portfolio in the stress-tester More scenarios
The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates, not financial advice