How a 40% gold portfolio fared in the dot-com bust
40% gold tilt: 40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 2000-03-24 to 2007-05-30 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | +19.5% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | +44.5% |
| CAGR (real) | +2.5% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −22.4% |
| Recovery | 2.1 years |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 1.20× |
| Ulcer index | 9.6 |
| Worst calendar year | 2001: −3.9% |
| Physical costs paid | $605 |
| Liquidation value | $14,283 |
A $10,000 stake in a 40% gold portfolio (40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the dot-com bust would have ended the window worth $11,950 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of +19.5%. Along the way it fell at most 22.4% from its peak (2.1 years), with an ulcer index of 9.6. The same stake in equities alone returned −17.1% real. This allocation beat it by 36.6 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $605 over the window.
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The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates, not financial advice