How a 40% gold portfolio fared in the 2008 financial crisis
40% gold tilt — 40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 2007-10-09 to 2013-03-28 · computed 2026-07-06 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | +24.3% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | +38.0% |
| CAGR (real) | +4.1% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −28.8% |
| Recovery | 16.8 months |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 1.24× |
| Ulcer index | 8.9 |
| Worst calendar year | 2008: −15.3% |
| Physical costs paid | $557 |
| Liquidation value | $13,644 |
A $10,000 stake in a 40% gold portfolio (40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the 2008 financial crisis would have ended the window worth $12,428 in real, CPI-deflated terms — a real return of +24.3%. Along the way it fell at most 28.8% from its peak (16.8 months), with an ulcer index of 8.9. The same stake in equities alone returned −9.7% real — this allocation beat it by 34.0 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership — dealer spread, storage, insurance — cost $557 over the window.
Open this portfolio in the stress-tester More scenarios
The link above prefills the allocation — adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates — not financial advice