How a 40% gold portfolio fared in the 2022 inflation and rate shock
40% gold tilt: 40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 2022-01-03 to 2024-01-19 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | −4.0% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | +5.2% |
| CAGR (real) | −2.0% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −18.5% |
| Recovery | not recovered in window |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 0.96× |
| Ulcer index | 9.6 |
| Worst calendar year | 2022: −8.0% |
| Physical costs paid | $321 |
| Liquidation value | $10,399 |
A $10,000 stake in a 40% gold portfolio (40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the 2022 inflation and rate shock would have ended the window worth $9,600 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of −4.0%. Along the way it fell at most 18.5% from its peak (not recovered in window), with an ulcer index of 9.6. The same stake in equities alone returned −7.9% real. This allocation beat it by 3.9 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $321 over the window.
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The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates, not financial advice