How a 40% gold portfolio fared in the Volcker double-dip
40% gold tilt: 40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 1980-11-28 to 1982-08-12 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | −36.6% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | −27.6% |
| CAGR (real) | −23.5% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −37.5% |
| Recovery | not recovered in window |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 0.63× |
| Ulcer index | 23.8 |
| Worst calendar year | 1981: −14.8% |
| Physical costs paid | $294 |
| Liquidation value | $7,147 |
A $10,000 stake in a 40% gold portfolio (40% gold · 40% equities · 20% cash, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the Volcker double-dip would have ended the window worth $6,342 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of −36.6%. Along the way it fell at most 37.5% from its peak (not recovered in window), with an ulcer index of 23.8. The same stake in equities alone returned −36.1% real. This allocation trailed it by 0.4 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $294 over the window.
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The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates, not financial advice