How a Permanent-style portfolio fared in the dot-com bust
Permanent-style: 25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 2000-03-24 to 2007-05-30 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | +15.7% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | +39.9% |
| CAGR (real) | +2.1% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −14.8% |
| Recovery | 2.1 years |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 1.16× |
| Ulcer index | 6.1 |
| Worst calendar year | 2001: −3.3% |
| Physical costs paid | $391 |
| Liquidation value | $13,889 |
A $10,000 stake in a Permanent-style portfolio (25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the dot-com bust would have ended the window worth $11,571 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of +15.7%. Along the way it fell at most 14.8% from its peak (2.1 years), with an ulcer index of 6.1. The same stake in equities alone returned −17.1% real. This allocation beat it by 32.9 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $391 over the window.
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The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates, not financial advice