How a Permanent-style portfolio fared in the 2008 financial crisis

Permanent-style — 25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 2007-10-09 to 2013-03-28 · computed 2026-07-06 with the same engine the app runs.

$4,255$10,000$11,7382007-10-092013-03-28

Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.

Total return (real)+15.6%
Total return (nominal)+28.3%
CAGR (real)+2.7%
Max drawdown (real)−19.9%
Recovery17.7 months
Purchasing-power ratio1.16×
Ulcer index6.4
Worst calendar year2008: −10.5%
Physical costs paid$343
Liquidation value$12,743

A $10,000 stake in a Permanent-style portfolio (25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the 2008 financial crisis would have ended the window worth $11,558 in real, CPI-deflated terms — a real return of +15.6%. Along the way it fell at most 19.9% from its peak (17.7 months), with an ulcer index of 6.4. The same stake in equities alone returned −9.7% real — this allocation beat it by 25.3 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership — dealer spread, storage, insurance — cost $343 over the window.

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The link above prefills the allocation — adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.

Educational estimates — not financial advice