How a Permanent-style portfolio fared in the 2022 inflation and rate shock

Permanent-style: 25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 2022-01-03 to 2024-01-19 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.

$7,071$10,000$10,0002022-01-032024-01-19

Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.

Total return (real)−4.0%
Total return (nominal)+5.2%
CAGR (real)−2.0%
Max drawdown (real)−12.0%
Recoverynot recovered in window
Purchasing-power ratio0.96×
Ulcer index6.4
Worst calendar year2022: −3.4%
Physical costs paid$209
Liquidation value$10,447

A $10,000 stake in a Permanent-style portfolio (25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the 2022 inflation and rate shock would have ended the window worth $9,602 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of −4.0%. Along the way it fell at most 12.0% from its peak (not recovered in window), with an ulcer index of 6.4. The same stake in equities alone returned −7.9% real. This allocation beat it by 4.0 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $209 over the window.

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The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.

Educational estimates, not financial advice