How a Permanent-style portfolio fared in the Volcker double-dip
Permanent-style: 25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities · quarterly rebalance · physical costs on (coins) · window 1980-11-28 to 1982-08-12 · computed 2026-07-13 with the same engine the app runs.
Solid: this portfolio, real (CPI-deflated) value of $10,000. Dashed: the all-equity baseline.
| Total return (real) | −24.3% |
|---|---|
| Total return (nominal) | −13.6% |
| CAGR (real) | −15.1% |
| Max drawdown (real) | −25.0% |
| Recovery | not recovered in window |
| Purchasing-power ratio | 0.76× |
| Ulcer index | 15.3 |
| Worst calendar year | 1981: −6.3% |
| Physical costs paid | $208 |
| Liquidation value | $8,572 |
A $10,000 stake in a Permanent-style portfolio (25% gold · 25% equities · 25% cash · 25% commodities, rebalanced quarterly, physical costs on coins applied) entering the Volcker double-dip would have ended the window worth $7,570 in real, CPI-deflated terms: a real return of −24.3%. Along the way it fell at most 25.0% from its peak (not recovered in window), with an ulcer index of 15.3. The same stake in equities alone returned −36.1% real. This allocation beat it by 11.8 percentage points of purchasing power. Physical ownership (dealer spread, storage, insurance) cost $208 over the window.
Open this portfolio in the stress-tester More scenarios
The link above prefills the allocation. Adjust weights, costs, and windows from there. Sources and formulas: methodology.
Educational estimates, not financial advice